Comments on: The Planning Fallacy http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/ Personal finance blog for college students, recent graduates and everyone else -- including entrepreneurship -- for getting rich. Featured in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 18:46:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: Some summer reading http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-82754 Some summer reading Thu, 04 Dec 2008 21:01:51 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-82754 [...] The Planning Fallacy [...] [...] The Planning Fallacy [...]

]]> By: Study Hacks » Blog Archive » 5 Articles That Will Change The Way You Think About Personal Productivity http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-66602 Study Hacks » Blog Archive » 5 Articles That Will Change The Way You Think About Personal Productivity Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:17:03 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-66602 [...] #3. The Planning Fallacy [...] [...] #3. The Planning Fallacy [...]

]]> By: Ramit Sethi http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-58250 Ramit Sethi Mon, 07 Apr 2008 18:43:50 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-58250 Um, Ashish and Dima, you know that Eliezer himself submitted this article to me as a guest post, right? Um, Ashish and Dima, you know that Eliezer himself submitted this article to me as a guest post, right?

]]> By: Zia http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-57693 Zia Tue, 01 Apr 2008 04:33:45 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-57693 Like Sudeep said, manage the risks. Gather as much historical data that one can for a similar project within your own organization and external ones if possible. FMEAs can provide visibility into which risk factors are most costly should the risk become reality, and a team can plan contingencies for these. Something else to consider when scheduling: time is lost when an output doesn't meet a customer's requirement, and an iteration must occur. When customers can become part of the design process early, iterations are rapid during the design cycle and the resulting output is quality. Like Sudeep said, manage the risks. Gather as much historical data that one can for a similar project within your own organization and external ones if possible. FMEAs can provide visibility into which risk factors are most costly should the risk become reality, and a team can plan contingencies for these.

Something else to consider when scheduling: time is lost when an output doesn’t meet a customer’s requirement, and an iteration must occur. When customers can become part of the design process early, iterations are rapid during the design cycle and the resulting output is quality.

]]> By: Sudeep D'Souza http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-57328 Sudeep D'Souza Thu, 27 Mar 2008 02:32:00 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-57328 Most times estimates go wrong due to inherrent risks in every project. If one can manage the project by managing the risks in the project and keeping it in control I think most tasks can be accomplished within a reasonable estimate. I have written more on this on my blog http://sudeepdsouza.blogspot.com/2008/03/managing-risk-for-better-estimates.html. Most times estimates go wrong due to inherrent risks in every project. If one can manage the project by managing the risks in the project and keeping it in control I think most tasks can be accomplished within a reasonable estimate.

I have written more on this on my blog http://sudeepdsouza.blogspot.com/2008/03/managing-risk-for-better-estimates.html.

]]> By: The Planning Fallacy < Monotasker http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-57323 The Planning Fallacy < Monotasker Thu, 27 Mar 2008 00:14:13 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-57323 [...] The Planning Fallacy [I Will Teach You To Be Rich] Post a comment | Trackback URI [...] [...] The Planning Fallacy [I Will Teach You To Be Rich] Post a comment | Trackback URI [...]

]]> By: Saleem http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-56927 Saleem Mon, 24 Mar 2008 04:11:25 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-56927 This fallacy has an interesting implication for product marketing: Avoid promising customers products by a certain date, because you'll probably be late (because we're all poor planners) Take the delayed launch of Vista. Lots of people mocked Microsoft because they missed their deadline by... lots. Whereas Apple's system is generally (not always) kind of 'promise nothing'. They just have a big conference where Job's is like, 'Yo, check out this crazy thing, bet you didn't see that coming.' And this approach works because we didn't have any expectations raised by (fallacy filled) estimates. This fallacy has an interesting implication for product marketing:
Avoid promising customers products by a certain date, because you’ll probably be late (because we’re all poor planners)

Take the delayed launch of Vista. Lots of people mocked Microsoft because they missed their deadline by… lots.

Whereas Apple’s system is generally (not always) kind of ‘promise nothing’. They just have a big conference where Job’s is like, ‘Yo, check out this crazy thing, bet you didn’t see that coming.’ And this approach works because we didn’t have any expectations raised by (fallacy filled) estimates.

]]> By: anon http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-56883 anon Mon, 24 Mar 2008 02:42:01 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-56883 The original article was linked - it's in the third paragraph. The original article was linked – it’s in the third paragraph.

]]> By: Dima http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-56751 Dima Sun, 23 Mar 2008 15:16:49 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-56751 Oh wow, thanks Ashish for pointing this out. This kind of blogging is completely unacceptable. I thought the last two sentences were nice but they are just a copy/paste (as is the most of the post). Ramit, I used to like your blog a lot and I have learned a few things from it. I haven't visited much for the last half a year though and two times I did visit, I got very disappointed. First was a few weeks ago when you had that guest blogger fiasco with IRA article. Second time is today reading through this post. I am not planning on coming back again. Good luck with everything. Oh wow, thanks Ashish for pointing this out. This kind of blogging is completely unacceptable. I thought the last two sentences were nice but they are just a copy/paste (as is the most of the post).
Ramit, I used to like your blog a lot and I have learned a few things from it. I haven’t visited much for the last half a year though and two times I did visit, I got very disappointed. First was a few weeks ago when you had that guest blogger fiasco with IRA article. Second time is today reading through this post. I am not planning on coming back again. Good luck with everything.

]]> By: Ashish Kulkarni http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy/#comment-56741 Ashish Kulkarni Sun, 23 Mar 2008 13:55:03 +0000 http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/blog/the-planning-fallacy#comment-56741 You know, actually linking to the <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/planning-fallac.html" rel="nofollow">original article on Overcoming Bias</a> or at least acknowledging that it is a very slight rewrite of an article published elsewhere would be more honest. You know, actually linking to the original article on Overcoming Bias or at least acknowledging that it is a very slight rewrite of an article published elsewhere would be more honest.

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