Just want to point something out about Google and crystal balls
January 20th, 2006 - 11 Comments
Ok, so the news is out: Google stock fell about 8.5% in its “largest single-day loss ever” today. Oh no!!!!! Is the Internet advertising market over? Or is it just a slight correction??
I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. I just want to point this out: When Google releases its numbers on January 30, the stock will either go up or down. And about 20 minutes afterwards, the pundits will start to talk as if they knew exactly what was going to happen…
If GOOG falls: People will start saying things like “I knew the advertising market was overvalued, and so was Google!!”
If GOOG rises: “I knew that it was just a small market correction and that it was going to go up!”
No they didn’t, or they would have bought/sold Google right away. Think about this today, January 20: Nobody knows a damn thing about what’s going to happen in 10 days. But stay tuned, because it’ll be hindsight bias at its best.
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