10 links to walk you through today’s financial crisis — and make you smarter than 99% of other people

September 29 62 Comments latest by Toothsoup » Blog Archive » Linkolalia

All right, guys. I’ve gotten lots of emails about what’s going on with the economy and bailout, so I thought I’d put together a list of the articles I’ve been reading over the last two weeks. I added my own commentary to them below, plus links to stuff I’ve written that agrees/disagrees with each of the articles. My guess: If you read these links, you’ll understand more about the economy than nearly anyone you meet on the street. (Especially some of the fools I’ve been hearing lately, who are convinced that the U.S. will (1) go bankrupt, (2) start owning every mortgage in the country, and (3) think the entire financial system will be “crashing,” whatever that means.)

1. Ignore the Sensationalist Media
Gawker pulls off one of the finest pieces of reporting on the bailout. When I wrote The Media is Atrociously Bad at Prediction and I’m Sick of It, I highlighted how various business media point make bold predictions, get it completely wrong, and are never held accountable.

In this case, Fortune highlighted AIG as one of “10 Stocks to Buy Now.” When they later apologized, they posted “The Best Stocks for 2008,” which, as Gawker points out, included…Merrill Lynch.

2. Hedge Fund Surprise?
This is like a tuna surprise, only worse: Hedge Funds Are Bracing for Investors to Cash Out. Many people haven’t heard about hedge funds’ redemption clauses, which basically means that fancy investors (e.g., universities, pension funds, and really wealthy people) will be able to withdraw their money today (Tuesday, 9/29/08). If that happens, nobody really knows what the repercussions could be…but they would probably be Very Bad. I’ve previously written about why hedge funds are overrated for investors.

3. We Have Short-Term Memories.
If you think history doesn’t repeat itself, you’re nuts. In fact, 10 years ago this month, Long Term Capital Management, a huge hedge fund, nearly caused a global financial collapse. Yet here we are — with the same words being thrown around. Does anyone really think investment bankers won’t make their same salaries at some point in the future? Or that we won’t gradually move back to huge executive compensation? Still, as I pointed out last week, none of that really matters to the individual investor. What matters is picking the right strategy and sticking to it.

4. What We Can Learn From Warren Buffett
Huge, long Warren Buffett interview. He is the man. Read this. It teaches you so much about long-term investing and admitting what you know — and don’t know. Note: I just ordered this new book on Warren Buffett.

5. Should You Buy More? Sell More? Something???!
“Should I withdraw money from my 401(k)?” After 10 people sent me this link, I knew I had to check it out. In the article, 24-year old Bodie Partsch worries about the economy and contemplates withdrawing money from his retirement account, saying, “I could have the money sitting in a jar on my kitchen counter. It’d be safer than in my 401(k),” he said. BAD MOVE! Here’s a quote from my upcoming book:

Recently, a group called Dimensional Funds studied the performance of the S&P 500 from January 1970 to December 2006, during which time the annualized return of the market was 11.1%. They also noted something amazing: Of those 36 years from 1970 to 1986, if you missed the 25 days when the stock market performed the best, your return would have dropped from 11.1% to 7.6%, a crippling difference.

Now, if only we could know the best investing days ahead of time.

But, of course, you can’t. Trying to time the market is for fools. So you keep investing carefully and methodically, while spending as consciously as possible.

I’ll also add this link from JLP: It looks like Market Turmoil is Scaring Off Young Investors, where he notes:

Isn’t it crazy how we do the exact opposite of what we should be doing? If the stock market was going up, up, UP, people would be jumping in left and right—essentially buying over-priced stocks. Now that the market is on a downswing, people are sitting on the sidelines.

6. Cool Data Visualizations of The Economy
The New York Times does extraordinary data visualizations to give you a fresh perspective on the news. Check out What Your Global Neighbors Are Buying and A Year of Heavy Losses. From the first one:

How people spend their discretionary income – the cash that goes to clothing, electronics, recreation, household goods, alcohol – depends a lot on where they live. People in Greece spend almost 13 times more money on clothing as they do on electronics. People living in Japan spend more on recreation than they do on clothing, electronics and household goods combined. Americans spend a lot of money on everything.

7. Q&A: What’s Actually Going On With the Bailout?
If you don’t understand exactly what’s going on, that’s because nobody does. But there are some excellent overviews of the financial situation floating around. I like this one by Suze Orman, where she tells people the following:

• What to do with $100,000 in debt and a $39k/year job.
• The huge mistake first-time homebuyers make. (Hint: A $1,500 rent is not the same as a $1,500 mortgage.)
• What to do when your mutual fund’s account value drops from $120,000 to $88,000.
• Should you stick with stock funds in this tumultuous environment?
• How to buy a car (I disagree with her on this one).

I also like this overview by NY Times Columnist David Leonhardt. If you like audio, check out this excellent program from This American Life. Finally, last week I linked to this excellent explanation of the market crisis on the Freakonomics blog.

8. What Gmail Has To Do With Your Money
I’ve been thinking about this post on a tech blog recently. It shows the early sketches/designs of Gmail, and what you realize from looking at them is that we only see the finished result — not the sausage-making in the back room. The same is true of rich people: We hear about people going on $50,000 honeymoons or driving brand-new Mercedes, but we don’t see the hard work behind it. This is an important concept that’s being more revealed with today’s economy: Many of the people who drove the expensive cars and bought the expensive houses couldn’t afford it. The people who were quietly accumulating wealth will do much better. Read more about this in one of my favorite personal-finance books, The Millionaire Next Door. (Btw, if you haven’t bought a couple good finance books recently — or anything that will help you turn your income into more money so you can hit your goals — please read this.)

9. Don’t Let Your Friends Be Morons
Don’t let your friends be idiots. If you read this site, chances are you understand that having 20, 30, or 40 years before you need your money gives you plenty of flexibility to invest for the long term, even with major or minor dips in the market. Yet with these terrifying headlines every day, it’s like people have become blind, yet highly literate zombies who wander aimlessly from one newspaper to another. Being dumb is not just focusing on the wrong things, it’s making poor financial decisions and then throwing up your hands and wondering why you don’t have enough money a few years later. If you own only one stock — especially if it’s your employer’s stock — then you are a fool. If you are going to buy a $1 million house with no research because you think it’s a good investment, you are a fool. If you don’t realize that your expensive, worthless mutual fund is costing you tens of thousands of dollars over your lifetime, you are a fool. Worry about the things you can control, not the headlines.

10. Get More Reading Material
Want more links? I keep my delicious bookmarks up to date every day, especially the section on finance.

I hope this helped. I’m thinking of doing a live video/webchat next week. What do you think? Would you attend?

(54 votes, average: 4.31 out of 5)

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62 Comments latest by Toothsoup » Blog Archive » Linkolalia

The Money Diaries: The 20-something who doesn’t make enough to cover her shopping habit

September 21 59 Comments latest by Misty

Today is the second post in the Money Diaries series, which is based off New York Magazine’s Sex Diaries. We’ve collected stories from real people about their spending habits over seven days, anonymized them, and posted them here.

Today’s post is from a 25-year old woman who’s struggling between paying her bills and the irresistible urge to spend.

DAY ONE

9am: At work… Stressing because this check has to pay both my rent AND car payment, as I was completely irresponsible with my money in July. Plus my best friend is getting married and I’m trying to foot the bill for a bridal shower. Ouch. I will not spend any money. I will not spend any money. I will not spend any money.
10am: I have Gmail chat with my other best friend. She’s incredibly financially responsible. She’s telling me about her Excel spreadsheet that she uses to track her budget. She makes me a mock-up copy and talks about how watching every cent go in and out makes it like a game - how much can I save this month? I’m developing this odd excitement and new-found resolve to get my finances in order. I’m going to fix this. I’m sick to death of being broke all the time and having no idea where my money went.
1pm: I spent money. Some coworkers asked me if I’d like to join them for lunch. Why, of course I would! I spent $10.60 at the Mexican place. I was too lazy to make lunch last night, so I figure I was going to spend some money anyway. I still feel guilty.
3pm: I check my bank account online. My paycheck (due tomorrow) has already come through. $1,268.22 total. This has to cover my rent ($975), my car payment ($300) and my cable bill that’s due this weekend (about $60). This isn’t enough. I have to ask my mom for money. SHIT.
6pm: I went Bridal Shower shopping. I had $25 cash in my pocket from hawking my old crap on Craigslist, and had to stay under that amount. I go to K-mart to get a few things for a craft project. I get to the register and they ring up more expensive than the display said. I can’t believe I’m standing in K-mart haggling over $6 with a cashier who barely speaks English. He gives after some persuasion and I’m off to a craft store with $6 remaining. I end up spending $8.48 and running my debit card after I told myself I wasn’t going to. I have no self control. So I reward myself with a $2.10 cheeseburger from In-n-Out on the way home. After all I can’t spend money once I’m home, right?
8:30pm: Wrong! $6.99 is shelled out to buy print-from-home Bridal Shower Bingo cards. I need to go to bed.

DAY TWO

11am: I get an email from Amazon. One of my books sold! I’m dorkily excited as this is the first time I’ve tried this. The upside is that I just made about $32. The downside is that because it’s my first time selling, they have to wait 14 days to deposit the funds. Damn. Plus I have to figure out how I’m going to get the money to ship the thing.
2pm: I just got off the phone with my mom. She’s agreed to LEND me $150 which will pay my cable bill and put gas in my car. This can work. I’ll pay her back in September. She’s not happy, but sometimes I have to shut up and listen to a lecture to see any money, and I RARELY ask.
5pm: I’m supposed to go out with friends tonight….I’ve already informed them of my little “situation” so we’ll be pre-drinking and then I’ll most likely con some sucker at the bar to buy me drinks once we’re out. I can avoid a cab (who has $7?) by sleeping on a friend’s couch. I have a feeling this can end up in financial disaster for me, so I’ve already decided not to take my debit card out with me, so that I can’t cave and start swiping it without abandon. Wish me luck!

DAY THREE

11 am: Last night was a success in that I didn’t spend a penny. It sucked not having money for a cab home, and I was in a very unpleasant mood at the end of the night. It’s a really shitty feeling to not be able to sport $7 for a cab. Lucky for me a friend picked me up. I find out my mom deposited $200. I’m so SICK of being in this rut! It feels like it’s never going to end, and I’m constantly going to be fighting to keep my head above water. I’m pretty sure I went to college to avoid be some broke-ass loser.
3pm: A girlfriend picks me up and we were supposed to go to a BBQ, but it ends up being a wash. We’re both starving and go to the market and get sushi and soup. I spend $13.60, which I told myself I wasn’t going to do, but I’m hungry and cranky.
9pm: I also paid for the cab home and chalk the $10 up to being a lot better than a DUI.

DAY FOUR

3pm: So I actually MADE a little money today! I sold a few old things from my school days to a current student. $180! She made out because I just saved her over $250 and I made out because that’s $180 I didn’t have this morning. I owe my credit card company $123 for going over my limit. It’s due by the 12th, but I don’t get paid until the 15th and they were NOT budging on that, despite my charming persuasion. At least this way I can bring it current and try to get a lower interest rate.
7pm: I’m staring into my desolate refrigerator and feeling a little depressed. I have a little leftover pasta (boooooring) and not much else. Usually my trusty freezer holds all kinds of forgotten treasures and even that is failing me now. I may have to allot $40 from my sale money today for a Trader Joe’s trip. My smarter option would be Ralph’s with it’s plethora of cheap and easy food, but I tend to shy away from over-processed crap. But sometimes broke and desperate means eating as cheap as possible. I bake cookies instead.

DAY FIVE

1:30am: I’m currently going through a serious conscience battle with the cash from yesterday. There’s a little angel and a devil on my shoulders screaming obscenities at each other. I can go wild and buy a few more things for both the Bridal Shower and Bachelorette party (can we spell “new dress”?!) but I’ve vowed to not continue to screw with my credit cards. I need (and I do mean, NEED) to do the responsible thing and pay them. It’s just so hard to part with $125 and get “nothing” in return! But that’s what got me in this little debt to begin with. I need to view this as being blessed that I have this money and can now pay my cards without completely bankrupting my next paycheck. It’s a good thing that angel is a witty little bitch!
6pm: I put some expensive drinkware on my Macy’s credit card for the Bridal Shower. I fully intend to pull a fast one and return it next week. I know that’s sneaky and dishonest, but I don’t really have a slew of other options. I don’t want my best friend drinking from plastic red party cups at her Bridal Shower! So I’m taking a chance and hoping nothing gets broken. I’ll wash and return it and no one will be the wiser!

DAY SIX

1pm: I have a voicemail from a guy trying to buy more CL stuff. I haven’t spoken to him yet, but if he buys this stuff and the woman I’m meeting with tonight buys that, that’s an additional $45. I’d be setting the money aside to pay for a spa day that’s planned for right before the wedding. Fingers crossed!
7pm: One of the buyers flaked, but I did walk away with $25. I’m setting it aside. I also went grocery shopping and ended up spending around $33. It’ll get me through at least next week. I’m gone all weekend, and that means I’ll be fed elsewhere!

DAY SEVEN

2pm: I’m thinking about my next paycheck (already!) and it’s giving me stress. I have to set aside my rent money so I don’t have a repeat of this month, and pay for SO much wedding related activities/appointments. I’m getting my hair done, going with the bride for pedicures, AND going to Vegas. Man. Plus I have to pay bills AND a $212 car insurance installment. I’m so ready for this wedding to be over.
5pm: I just realized that in the whirlwind that has been this week, I haven’t touched the budget my friend made me. I feel terribly guilty and can’t even explain why, as the only person I’m letting down is myself. I still have resolve and hopefully I’ll have some time this weekend while I’m visiting my mom.

In sum: $1530 made, $1410 spent… over $100 of that being just food, one loan from my mom, 7 days of making-my-face-break-out stress, $0 in Credit Card debt paid off, and one dishonest department store scam. Whew.

* * *

To be featured anonymously in a future Money Diary, click here.

(22 votes, average: 4.41 out of 5)

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59 Comments latest by Misty

My 3-minute video response: What you can do about today’s economy

September 18 82 Comments latest by Janice in Spain

Yesterday a bunch of you left comments and sent me emails about what’s going on in the economy. Here’s a quick video I did to answer some of them. Check it out and see my notes below.

0:01 — Intro: We’re going to talk about what’s happening with the economy, asking the right questions, what you can do with your money. PS–It’s my first time doing video for this site, so please cut me some slack!

0:12 — Lots of questions: “What’s happening?” “Who can I blame?” “Why is the government bailing companies out?”

0:45 — Most of the questions are totally irrelevant!.

What do we know?
1:11 — Your money is generally safe: Money in savings accounts is insured up to $100,000 per account, and money in brokerage accounts is insured up to $500,000 (with some nuances). However, this doesn’t mean money in your portfolio is insured against losses in the stock market — if your portfolio is down 20%, it’s really down 20%. That’s why investing is “investing,” not “picking a sure thing and profiting a lot.” SIPC insurance means it’s insured against the brokerage firm going belly-up. Learn more by reading this article.

If you’re looking for a broad-based understanding of what’s going on, The New York Times has been providing excellent coverage, especially this page.

Worry about the things you can control
1:47 — We misjudge risk and worry about stuff in the news — as opposed to the real risk. Let’s say you’re worried about not having enough money. Which is more likely?

1. You’ll run out of money because you lost it all in a tumultuous stock market
2. You’ll run out of money because you didn’t save enough, spent money on stupid stuff (vs. spending consciously), and didn’t properly diversify your assets

OF COURSE it’s the second, but because of the availability heuristic, we tend to overweight what’s easily accessible in our brains (i.e., we’re all worried about what we read in the papers right now).

Remember, we are cognitive misers and can only pay attention to a few things, so take advantage of that. I’d rather focus on the very real risks that have caused millions of people before me to not have enough money to sustain their lifestyle — that is, not saving enough — rather than worry about a macro-economic topic that’s in newspapers. Sure, it’s important, but I can’t control anything at the macro level. At the micro level, I can control everything. (Note: Here’s a good book on judging risk.)

What you should focus on
2:12 — Save more — single-best thing you can do to mitigate risk

(No time stamp.) I forgot to mention this in the video, but please don’t fall prey to the myth of financial expertise: Nobody has The Answer about how bad this will get and how long it will go. Experts have been trying to predict this for years — remember in 2007 when they said it would “probably be fine by the end of the year?” — and they’re still trying. And failingDon’t try to time the market. You’ll fail too. Just pick a regular, consistent investing strategy and optimize for the long term.

2:23 — Tweak your asset allocation

2:42 — Stop asking stupid questions!

2:52 — Best things you can do: Forget about macro-stuff and focus on your own finances. Save more, do a kick-ass job at work and get a raise, or even start a side business.

Hey, what did you guys think of the video? Should I do more? Let me know if you have any suggestions or questions for other stuff you want me to talk about.

(100 votes, average: 4.54 out of 5)

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82 Comments latest by Janice in Spain

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