Hybrid cars don't save you money. Do the math!

Posted at 14:18 on Tuesday May 10, 2005 | Filed Under Saving
This is a guest post by Ian Ybarra.

Don’t lie to me, you hybrid lover.

If you buy a hybrid car, say you’re doing it for the environment. Say you’re doing it to be cool like some tree-hugging celebrities you read about in US Weekly. Hell, say it because you can get it in a cool color (I actually heard this “reason” recently). But don’t say you’re doing it for your pocketbook. Don’t lie to me. More important, don’t lie to yourself.

Here, I’ll help you tell the truth. (Yes, there are numbers involved. That’s why Ramit asked me to fill in for him on this one. ;-)

I know the Toyota Prius is THE hybrid car, but for the sake of making a more direct comparison of regular and hybrid cars, I’ll use the Honda Civic Sedan and the Honda Civic Hybrid Sedan.

Civic Sedan Civic Hybrid Sedan
32/37 mpg (city/hwy) 48/47 mpg

Split the difference on those mileage figures, and we’ll use the following numbers for our calculations…

Civic Sedan Civic Hybrid Sedan
34.5 mpg 47.5 mpg

“They” say you drive 15,000 miles every year. To drive that far, you’d have to buy

Civic Sedan Civic Hybrid Sedan
434.8 gallons of gas(15,000miles / 34.5mpg) 315.8 gallons of gas 15,000miles / 47.5mpg)

What does that cost you?
Civic Sedan Civic Hybrid Sedan
$869.57 (434.8gal x $2/gal) $631.58 (315.8gal x $2/gal)

Hybrid owners save $237.99 on gas every year
($869.57 – $631.58)

Wow! Saving $237.99 per year is awesome, I guess. That is, unless you think about how much more you paid for the hybrid car to save money on gas.

What do these cars cost?

Civic Sedan Civic Hybrid Sedan
$17,960 (highest trim level, automatic transmission) $20,900 (continuously variable transmission)

The Civic Hybrid Sedan costs an additional $2,940
($20,900 – $17,960)

So how many years of “saving on gas” does it take to actually start “saving money.”

$2,940 (how much more you paid for a hybrid car)
---(divided by)---
$237.99/year (how much you save on gas each year)

= 12.35346 years

12.35346 years. That’s a long time. Just reading that number takes a long time.

Your situation can get a little better -- if you manage to get the $2,000 federal Clean-Fuel Vehicle Deduction, your break-even point goes down to just under 4 years. (Then again, all these numbers are based on you buying a top-of-the-line Civic sedan or hybrid sedan. If you didn't need such a nice car, you wouldn't have to spend near this much money.)

Now go buy a hybrid car at your own risk. Just don’t lie about why you’re doing it.

From Ramit: I rarely recommend other sites on here, but Ian's blog is a rare gem. If you're a college student or recent college grad and you've ever wondered what to do with your life, he's the guy to read. Ian graduated from MIT in 2004 and has managed to find his dream job--and, even more impressively, to write about it in a meaningful way. Check out his blog at http://www.ianybarra.com/blog
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Comments (19)

1.

If you buy a MINI Cooper, the base model is $17,000 and you get much better gas mileage than that gasoline Civic. Sure, it's a smaller car, but if you want to save the environment AND save money, go with the Cooper!

Posted by hy at June 26, 2005 12:30 PM
2.

Better yet....NEVER buy a NEW car, Pay cash for a 2k-5k car and save 15K +/-
(15k/$237.99=63.027858YEARS)

Posted by Scott Fisher at July 26, 2005 11:18 AM
3.

Also you should factor in the costs of replaing those pricey batteries in a few years after they wear out.

Posted by Annon at September 28, 2005 12:59 PM
4.

However, if like many of us commuters, you buy a hybrid to save gas, you drive more like 30K miles per year. If you put that in your equation, and bump gas to a reasonable average of $2.30 a year (cheaper than gas is now), the car pays for itself in 5.2 years. If maintenance is equal on the cars (does anyone have any facts on maint costs for a hyrbrid?), then that's not such a bad deal.


Again, with the battery replacement thing, this might severely diminish the resale value of hybrid cars, so you'd have to consider that also - a used 8 year old Honda still commands about $5K bluebook, but I wonder if an 8 year old hybrid with impending $2K battery changes would have the same value.

Posted by dgsinclair at November 28, 2005 04:35 PM
5.

You are missing something very important... You have missed the rest of the world ;) In US you have got very cheap gas (many thanks to Bush for war in Iraq..). For example in my country - Poland (central EU) - 1gal costs about $5,90 (and it goes up). Not sure about east EU, but it will be more like a $5,90 than $2 - this I am sure. Now do the math again :)

Posted by ffreak at November 29, 2005 09:06 AM
6.

Start by not believing in benchmarks.


There are two figures here: the first is the miles per gallon as published, the second are miles per gallon of the car as per real tests for city driving as published in BusinessWeek Nov. 14, 2005 reports.


Lexus RX 400H– 31 , 16 mpg
Toyota Highlander — 33 , 16 mpg
Ford Escape — 36, 22 mpg
Honda Civic — 49 , 36 mpg
Honda Accord — 29 , 18 mpg


So yes, buy a hybrid, but yes, for a different reason....

Posted by wilson ng at December 1, 2005 03:57 AM
7.

Iam also living in a country with Prices of 1 Gallon +/- 6$. But beside this, it’s clearly not only a matter of saving money. Someone has to experiment with new technologies and Iam happy there are people who buy, for whatever reasons, hybrid cars. These people help to push new technologies and make it cheaper.


And with new energy saving technologies one can make a good business in the future. All the BRIC (Brasil, Russia, India and China) Countries grow heavy and need heaps of energy. So energy prices will go up further and alternative energy sources become very valuable. Do the math for the future, now!

Posted by marcus at December 24, 2005 11:43 AM
8.

First, you need to factor in different gas prices in different parts of the world.


Second, there is nowhere any discussion on reduction in emissions. This is one of the main benefits of a hybrid car apart from more mileage.


And this is what people will be contributing to the environment.


Numbers are important and they do provide a semblance of rationality. However, it could be misleading.


Say, you produce a product in US and compare that with a product in China.


Even though it may cost more in the US, it is environmentally more friendly for a variety of reasons.


1) better laws than china
2) efficient manufacturing than china, hence less pollution and resources
3) resource savings in terms of not shipping it half way round the world


So if you speak of only environmental terms than it is more than numbers at cost. You have to look at the actual resource usage.


Cheers,
Suhit

Posted by Suhit Anantula at January 8, 2006 08:20 PM
9.

Ramit, fuel prices may change a lot too. Think about it, maybe in 8 years the fuel price is $4 a gallon or more. This is quite likely on current trends, and it could be even more if the US dollar slips a bit more.

Posted by greg at March 29, 2006 10:58 PM
10.

This is yet another knock against the hybrid, but none of this analysis takes into account the future value of the extra $2,940 you spend on the hybrid. If you put that money in the bank and drew interest from it in a 1 yr ING CD at 4.75% apr, you generate $132.3 a year, thereby halving the original $237.99 gas savings and doubling the accounting break even point.

Posted by Nick at April 9, 2006 11:31 PM
11.

I think you're also missing another opportunity here...I'm considering trading my Honda CR-V (with mileage of 22 mpg average) for a Hybrid Civic. My CR-V is only a model year 2003, and it didn't lose a lot in depreciation. Consequently, I'll be saving far more than just the significant difference in mileage, but as gas prices creep up this summer +$3/gallon in U.S., then I would actually be making a decent decision on the purchase. NOTE: the battery life is certainly an issue, but if I buy extended warranty, I'm covered...

Posted by JT at April 13, 2006 01:22 PM
12.

Also, this article doesn't apply to those who currently drive a gas guzzling SUV like a Ford Explorer and want to downgrade to a Toyota Prius which actually gets even better gas mileage than a crappy Civic Hybrid. While it may be true that the upside for a current civic driver might not necessary jump on the bandwagon to switch to a hybrid, it might make a world of a difference and huge gas/money savings for someone currently driving a gas guzzling car.

Posted by Roger at April 19, 2006 10:44 AM
13.

What about tax breaks in the US for having a Hybrid car?

Posted by Ryan at April 23, 2006 05:56 PM
14.

This is a method of figuring out what the advantages or disadvantages of increased MPG vs. increased car price are for yourselves, guys. Don't complain about wrong prices in the article (written in 2005 by someone from the US), or such. Take the formulas, and figure it out for yourselves! A friend pointed me to this webpage to help me decide between two non-hybrid cars, based on prices and MPG. It gave me a very helpful method for making those estimates for myself.

Posted by Charlotte at April 25, 2006 12:55 PM
15.

Living in the UK, we have ungodly petrol prices (the latest price is around £0.98/litre, meaning about £4.4 per gallon; in dollars that is approxiatley $8.20...for a single gallon!). When hybrod cars were released the public jumped at the chance of buying cars that will give them increased MPG over their petrol quivalent. Very shortly after these costly mistakes motoring press reported that the cars would take 14 YEARS to recoup the extra money spent on them (the MSRP of a 2005 Toyota Prius is around £22,000or $40,000 US). After that there was an increase in the purchasing of Diesel vehicles; simply because they are becoming cheaper to buy next to the Priuses and Civic IMAs, while providing vastly suprior economy, good refinement, reasonably low emmissions and in some cars like the BMW 535d, incredible performance.

Posted by Michael at July 2, 2006 06:11 PM
16.

let's say that you are saving 120 gallons per year, now with the price we're paying at 3.30, that's $396 per year, which cuts the years to break even to 2940/396 = 7.42 years.
And that number will be down to under 5 years once gas hits $5 a gallon in the states.

Posted by newjesustimes at July 4, 2006 12:59 PM
17.

I want a hybrid because I hate that we're so dependent on oil. Good enough reason? lol

Posted by Bethany at July 18, 2006 08:37 AM
18.

Believe me, I DID this math before buying my Civic Hybrid, and I've done it again when buying the Camry Hybrid over the regular Camry. Yes, my main reason is saving gas to help break our dependence and help the environment.


That said, if you count the $2600 tax CREDIT (that's a full $2600 in pocket come tax time!), the Camry Hybrid is $1000 cheaper than the top of the line model right out the door (don't forget, the hybrids are loaded with the same stuff as the top of the lines + the hybrid technology, so you're not getting less). At current gas prices (~$3/gal), it's cheaper than the midrange model by the time you hit 90k miles. Nudge gas prices up, and the gap closes much faster.


Someone asked about maintenance: Oil changes, for example are needed only every 10,000 miles; new filter needed only every 20,000. Do THAT math...


In all fairness, the possible $ savings should NOT be the reason you go out and buy a hybrid...do it for your kids & grandkids (or your friend's). Leave something around for them!

Posted by Tom at August 10, 2006 02:06 PM
19.

In addition to the benefits to the environment and the financial savings in question, another major motivation for myself is the ability to legally drive solo in the carpool lane. Those interested had better act fast before all the permits are snapped up.

Posted by Van at November 13, 2006 02:48 PM

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This is a blog on personal finance (banking, saving, budgeting, and investing) and personal entrepreneurship.

It's for students, recent graduates, and other young people.

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Ramit Sethi

I'm a recent graduate of Stanford, where I studied technology and psychology. Now I'm the co-founder & VP of Marketing for PBwiki, a wiki startup in Silicon Valley.

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